{"id":3149,"date":"2024-04-17T07:16:39","date_gmt":"2024-04-17T13:16:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/?p=3149"},"modified":"2024-04-26T11:59:08","modified_gmt":"2024-04-26T17:59:08","slug":"el-clima-de-negocios-tras-100-dias-del-nuevo-gobierno","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/2024\/04\/17\/el-clima-de-negocios-tras-100-dias-del-nuevo-gobierno\/","title":{"rendered":"The Business Climate in the First 100 Days"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"3149\" class=\"elementor elementor-3149\" wpc-filter-elementor-widget=\"1\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2e7eefc e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"2e7eefc\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c6cced elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"8c6cced\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" src=\"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/100-DIAS-03.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-3151\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/100-DIAS-03.jpg 2500w, https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/100-DIAS-03-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/100-DIAS-03-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/100-DIAS-03-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/100-DIAS-03-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/100-DIAS-03-2048x1366.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/100-DIAS-03-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f67c05e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f67c05e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Guatemalan President Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo took office three months ago, on January 15, 2024. The first 100 days of a new administration are decisive in setting the course of the new government. Today, we analyze what actions President Ar\u00e9valo has taken to improve the country's business environment.<\/p><h5 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>International Image<\/strong><\/h5><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the political crisis of 2023, restoring the country's image is an indispensable step to attract investment. President Ar\u00e9valo made two trips with this objective in mind.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The first was a <a href=\"https:\/\/bernardoarevalo.presidencia.gob.gt\/presidente-arevalo-resalta-resultados-de-gira-por-europa\/\">European tour<\/a>. He <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prensalibre.com\/guatemala\/politica\/guatemala-firma-memorando-con-union-europea-para-reforzar-su-relacion-breaking\/\">signed<\/a> a memorandum of understanding with the European Union (EU) that includes a US$53.6 million project and access to the EU <a href=\"https:\/\/commission.europa.eu\/strategy-and-policy\/priorities-2019-2024\/stronger-europe-world\/global-gateway_es\">Global Gateway<\/a> , which will allow Guatemala to receive investment for infrastructure projects focused on sustainable economic growth, health and education. He also met with French and Spanish businesspeople and signed an <a href=\"https:\/\/agn.gt\/inguat-e-iberia-firman-carta-de-entendimiento-en-presencia-del-presidente-arevalo\/\">agreement<\/a> with Iberia to stimulate the tourism industry.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The second trip was to the United States (US). The US government <a href=\"https:\/\/lahora.gt\/nacionales\/hquino\/2024\/04\/01\/bernardo-arevalo-dice-que-tuvo-un-viaje-exitoso-a-estados-unidos\/\">announced<\/a> a contribution of more than US$129 million in cooperation for Guatemala. Representatives of the Guatemalan private sector and multinationals such as Amazon, Walmart and Mastercard, among others, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.soy502.com\/articulo\/bernardo-arevalo-sostuvo-reunion-amazon-inversiones-101835\">participated<\/a> in the meetings.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that the Ministry of Finance <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prensalibre.com\/economia\/rehabilitan-la-llamada-mesa-de-riesgo-pais-en-busca-del-grado-de-inversion-para-guatemala\/\">rehabilitated<\/a> the Country Risk Table. This initiative seeks to coordinate efforts with the private sector to improve Guatemala's credit rating to the investment level.<\/p><h5 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Infrastructure<\/strong><\/h5><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">One of the biggest challenges the new government is facing is the poor state of roads, ports, airports, and transportation. The Logistics Performance Index, which measures the quality of infrastructure and ease of moving goods and services, <a href=\"https:\/\/lpi.worldbank.org\/\">ranks<\/a> Guatemala 88th out of 139 countries.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Ministry of Communications, Infrastructure and Housing (CIV) initiated a series of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prensalibre.com\/guatemala\/politica\/comunicaciones-anuncia-auditorias-exhaustivas-en-caminos-covial-y-la-unidad-de-construccion-de-edificios-del-estado\/\">audits<\/a> in different units because it considers that there are contracts that are detrimental to the State. Minister Jazm\u00edn de la Vega <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prensalibre.com\/guatemala\/politica\/francis-argueta-es-destituido-como-director-de-aeronautica-civil-y-nombran-a-su-sustituta-breaking\/\">dismissed<\/a> the Director of Civil Aeronautics, Francis Argueta. Argueta's administration was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prensalibre.com\/guatemala\/politica\/los-5-problemas-que-dejo-francis-argueta-en-el-aeropuerto-internacional-la-aurora\/\">characterized<\/a> by the poor state of La Aurora International Airport and it is expected that efforts to restore it will be initiated.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, President Ar\u00e9valo <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prensalibre.com\/guatemala\/comunitario\/gobierno-revela-detalles-de-proyecto-de-metro-subterraneo-en-guatemala\/\">announced<\/a> the construction of an underground subway in the capital, with the support of the World Bank and a public-private partnership. The first section is expected to be inaugurated in 2027. For the moment, no details have been given on how the bidding will be done.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wanting <a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/137QmBdLM70p_5ZhTsAYffbin--URNfcZ\/view\">government plan<\/a> contemplates investment projects for the next four years totaling US$3.5 billion. Among them are:<\/p><ul style=\"text-align: justify;\"><li>500 km of new primary roads; 1,820 km of secondary roads and 1,500 km of rural roads.<\/li><li>A maintenance program for 100% of the registered road network (39,000 km).<\/li><li>US$180 million will be allocated to improve port and airport infrastructure.<\/li><\/ul><h5 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Mining and Energy<\/strong><\/h5><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the energy sector, the new government <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prensalibre.com\/economia\/declaran-estado-de-emergencia-en-el-sistema-electrico-guatemalteco-por-fenomeno-el-nino\/\">declared<\/a> a state of emergency for the Guatemalan electricity system. Population growth, constant urbanization and the El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon have <a href=\"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/2024\/02\/16\/avances-y-oportunidades-en-el-sector-energetico\/\">limited<\/a> the system's capacity to meet growing demand. However, this translates into greater <a href=\"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/2024\/02\/16\/avances-y-oportunidades-en-el-sector-energetico\/\">investment opportunities<\/a>, especially in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.energiaestrategica.com\/guatemala-plantea-convocar-a-la-licitacion-peg-5-2024-por-1200-mw-en-los-primeros-meses-del-2024\/\">PEG 05-2024<\/a> bid and in renewable energies.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the other hand, the outlook for the mining sector is worrisome for investors. Several projects have had a <em>de facto<\/em> moratorium in the last decade. The Minister of Energy and Mines, Hugo Ventura, <a href=\"https:\/\/republica.gt\/politica\/mem-anuncia-moratoria-minera-de-dos-anos-20243157560\">announced<\/a> a two-year mining moratorium during which the government wants to reform and modernize the mining legislation, which has already been supported by the new Minister of Environment, Patricia Orantes. It is uncertain whether they will achieve this objective considering the difficulties they have faced in Congress.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The oil activity has a similar projection. Minister Ventura informed Congress that he will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ojoconmipisto.com\/el-cierre-de-perenco-elimina-el-el-impacto-ambiental-y-las-regalias-a-municipalidades\/\">not extend<\/a> the contract of Perenco, the only oil company in the country. President Ar\u00e9valo <a href=\"https:\/\/lahora.gt\/nacionales\/hquino\/2024\/04\/05\/bernardo-arevalo-contrato-de-perenco-en-laguna-del-tigre-no-sera-renovado\/\">confirmed<\/a> this decision and indicated that Perenco could operate in the future, but not in Laguna del Tigre, which is a natural reserve.<\/p><h5 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Legislative Agenda<\/strong><\/h5><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The ruling party faces a complex scenario in Congress.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The government's priority is the approval of the Antitrust Law (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.congreso.gob.gt\/assets\/uploads\/info_legislativo\/dictamen\/Dictamen%205074%20Ley%20de%20Competencia.pdf\">initiative 5074<\/a>). On April 11th, Congress approved it in its second reading (out of three). Although the law still needs amendments, prioritizing it is a wise decision given that the World Bank <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bancomundial.org\/es\/news\/press-release\/2024\/04\/10\/revitalizing-growth-an-urgent-agenda-for-latin-america-and-the-caribbean\">recommends<\/a> this type of legislation to stimulate economic growth. In addition, it provides legal certainty to investors regarding how to resolve disputes with competitors, customers, and suppliers. Finally, it prevents collusion in public tenders, allowing more companies to compete.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, the ruling party, which only has 23 of the 160 deputies, has no control over the legislative agenda and has been unable to maintain its solid alliance and establish consensus with other benches. The laws approved so far are not of great importance for the country's economy, nor do they correspond to the ten agreed laws <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prensalibre.com\/guatemala\/politica\/semilla-habria-pactado-10-reformas-legales-para-llegar-a-la-presidencia-del-congreso\/\">announced<\/a> in January 2024. For this reason, Ar\u00e9valo concluded his first 100 days without a relevant legislative victory.<\/p><h5 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Rule of Law<\/strong><\/h5><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ar\u00e9valo ran his political campaign on an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/mundo\/articles\/cjmp32w4p4ko\">anti-corruption platform<\/a>. As a result, the ministries within the Executive have announced internal audits in different areas. Some of these include the <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MineducGT\/status\/1753164083568804188\">School Health Insurance Program<\/a>, mining <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prensalibre.com\/economia\/el-ministerio-de-energia-y-minas-revisara-todas-las-licencias-mineras-tras-indicios-de-corrupcion-detectados\/\">licensing processes<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prensalibre.com\/guatemala\/politica\/comunicaciones-anuncia-auditorias-exhaustivas-en-caminos-covial-y-la-unidad-de-construccion-de-edificios-del-estado\/\">public works contracts and execution<\/a>, the <a href=\"https:\/\/lahora.gt\/nacionales\/la-hora\/2024\/02\/05\/a-la-destitucion-de-argueta-le-seguira-una-auditoria-segun-civ\/\">airport\u2019s mismanagement<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prensalibre.com\/guatemala\/politica\/salud-pide-a-cgc-una-auditoria-especial-de-las-compras-de-vacunas-y-medicamentos-durante-la-pandemia-y-de-principales-hospitales\/\">hospital<\/a> administration and medicine purchases, to name a few. Transparency in public administration is important for the State to be able to execute projects effectively in the future.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">One of Ar\u00e9valo's <a href=\"https:\/\/www.plazapublica.com.gt\/politica\/reportaje\/bernardo-arevalo-perdio-cinco-veces-contra-consuelo-porras\">promises<\/a> was to get Attorney General Consuelo Porras to resign. In 2022, Porras was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/designacion-de-la-fiscal-general-maria-consuelo-porras-argueta-de-porres-por-participar-en-hechos-significativos-de-corrupcion-y-consideracion-de-otras-designaciones\/\">added<\/a> to the US Engel List of Corrupt and Undemocratic Actors for her role in the persecution of judges, prosecutors and journalists. She has also been sanctioned by more than 40 <a href=\"https:\/\/dca.gob.gt\/noticias-guatemala-diario-centro-america\/gestion-antidemocratica-trasciende-fronteras\/\">countries<\/a>. Additionally, the Attorney General\u2019s Office (AGO) played a crucial role in the political crisis of 2023 by <a href=\"https:\/\/elpais.com\/america\/2023-12-08\/un-fiscal-sugiere-anular-las-elecciones-en-guatemala-y-la-oea-denuncia-un-intento-de-golpe-de-estado.html\">proposing<\/a> to annul the electoral results.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The President has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.plazapublica.com.gt\/politica\/reportaje\/bernardo-arevalo-perdio-cinco-veces-contra-consuelo-porras\">unable<\/a> to fulfill his promise, and Porras will likely remain in office until the end of her term in 2026. This will limit the anti-corruption efforts and the strengthening of the Rule of Law to which this government aspires, which has negative effects on the business climate because it maintains a situation of uncertainty due to the lack of legal guarantees.<\/p><h5 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h5><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The first 100 days of Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo's administration have been marked by decisions that have impacted Guatemala's business climate. His strength lies in the international image he projects and the agreements he has reached. We anticipate that such approaches and investment in infrastructure will be positive aspects in the future.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the other hand, the government faces great challenges to reach a consensus on a legislative agenda and promote the reforms they want. Its decisions regarding the extractive sector provide it with uncertainty. The mining moratorium and the termination of the contract with Perenco are proof of this.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Finally, the President continues to face great challenges to strengthen the Rule of Law, given that the Attorney General will most likely remain in office until the end of her term in 2026.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-84b65c7 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"84b65c7\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Guatemalan President Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo took office three months ago, on January 15, 2024. The first 100 days of a new administration are decisive in setting the course of the new government. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":3151,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[33,399,400,410,263,395,393,397],"class_list":["post-3149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-freshstartmonday","tag-freshstartmonday-2","tag-399","tag-100-dias","tag-el-clima-de-negocios-tras-100-dias-del-nuevo-gobierno","tag-guatemala","tag-karin-herrera","tag-ministerios","tag-negocios"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3149","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3149"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3149\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3163,"href":"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3149\/revisions\/3163"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3151"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carrillolaw.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}